2014 FF Draft Work: Teams 2 and 3

I'm not sure who has less of a life: me for writing this or you for reading it.  Let's see what you think of these teams.  I felt it was another couple strong days in the office.  I really wish they paid me for drafting teams (other than the money I'm taking off my fellow owners) or writing about them.

TEAM 2

Setup – 12 team; .5 PPR; 1 keeper (Jamaal Charles); 12^th pick

QB – Colin Kaepernick (7^th)

RB – Jamaal Charles (keeper)

RB – Shane Vereen (4^th)

WR – Antonio Brown (1^st)

WR – Michael Crabtree (3^rd)

RB/WR/TE (WR) – Michael Floyd (5^th)

TE – Julius Thomas (2^nd)

K – Nick Novak (15^th)

DEF – 49ers (12^th)

BN (QB) – Tony Romo (10^th)

BN (RB) – Chris Johnson (6^th)

BN (RB) – Christine Michael (11^th)

BN (WR) – Brandin Cooks (8^th)

BN (WR) – Riley Cooper (14^th)

BN (TE) – Ladarius Green (9^th)

BN (DEF) – Buccaneers (13^th)

Having a surefire top-4 pick to start with is always nice.  I used to prefer drafting on one of the ends because I liked doubling up on picks at once. However, I’ve since migrated away from that thinking because I’ve found that you need to reach for players more often.  Or maybe I don’t like sitting around waiting for 20 minutes between picks. 

I was really hoping the Bernard would make it to me and he almost did.  Once he didn’t my only decision was 1 or 2 WRs.  I knew I was taking my man Brown.  I decided to go with a curveball by selecting the Orange Julius.  My general thinking has been to wait on TE if I can’t get Graham.  I do have Thomas as my #2 TE and it wasn’t a stretch to grab so I hoped that wouldn’t put me behind the 8-ball too much. 

I was quite pleased that Vereen came all the back; he’s going to catch a ton of passes.  Maybe not Larry Centers circa 1995 but in the ballpark I’m hoping.  Crabtree and Kap had some good mojo a couple years ago that I think they can rekindle.  I’m content with him as my #2. 

Both Floyd and CJ1K both seemed like real value picks when they got to me. 

As I predicted, there would be QBs in the middle to late rounds that I could snag and walk away from the draft happy with.  I actually think Romo could end up with the better year than Kap but I also correctly predicted he would drop.  There’s just some negative stigma about the guy that I don’t get. 

Cooks was a reach but I’ve already supported my basis for going outside your comfort zone on guys when you’re on an end.  Plus I really wanted to get at least 1 share of a guy who could duplicate the work of Darren Sproles. 

I’d much rather have Green on my 1^st team but I’m not complaining.  I typically like to carry 2 defenses and play the matchup game.  I feel like I have 2 top 10 units with the 49ers and Bucs (in Lovie I trust). 

Overall, I’d consider this another job well done.  I don’t have any perceived weaknesses and I don’t need unrealistic performances from any player or group of players to compete.  Obviously I like my chances to make the playoffs (6 of 12 make it) and I consider myself one of the favorites to win it all (and retain my title). 

This league is on NFL.com and they gave my work an A+.  Another league mate input the draft into his fantasy sports program.  The prognosis on my team is that I have a 99% chance to make the playoffs with excellent in-season management and an 84% chance to make them with merely average in-season management.  I love having my ego massaged but those calculations definitely seem inflated.  I hope he didn’t pay too much for that app. For the results, go here and look at the Draft2 tab. 

TEAM 3

Setup – 10 team; .5 PPR; Auction with $200 budget

QB – Colin Kaepernick ($3)

RB/WR/TE (RB) – Eddie Lacy ($41)

RB/WR/TE (WR) – Jordy Nelson ($32)

RB/WR/TE (WR) – Antonio Brown ($28)

RB/WR/TE (RB) – Andre Ellington ($22)

RB/WR/TE (WR) – Andre Johnson ($21)

RB/WR/TE (WR) – Larry Fitzgerald ($16)

K – Justin Tucker ($1)

DEF – Cardinals ($1)

BN (WR) – Keenan Allen ($16)

BN (WR) – T.Y. Hilton ($11)

BN (WR) – Brandin Cooks ($6)

BN (QB) – Russell Wilson ($1)

BN (WR) – Terrance Williams ($1)

This was only my 2^nd auction ever for football.  I had some player values from ESPN printed out ahead of time but I quickly tossed them aside.  If you look at the entire auction results here on the Draft3 tab, you’ll see some guys who went for way more than expected and some absolute steals. 

The auction value is in parentheses and I made the highest paid players on each the starters. I did italicize a few situations where a bench guy (based on price) might actually represent the more optimal lineup.  What you can’t tell from this sheet is when the player got added.  Trust me when I say that makes a difference. 

Even when you look at my players, it’s impossible to look at individual players in a vacuum.  It’s all relative to everything else going on around you.  From my baseball auction experience, I’ve found that the best deals are early and late.  Even though everyone has money at the beginning, people are hesitant to overpay because they’re still holding out hope for a better deal later.  I’ll shell out a couple extra bucks for a stud if it’s someone I really want.  In the middle stages, the pool of valued players is dwindling and the money usually hasn’t caught up to it yet.  In order to be sure they aren’t stuck holding the bag, people will squabble over the few big names left.  By the end, there are great bargains if you’ve got some money left. 

This league is a bit unique because you can completely customize your lineup outside of your QB, K and DEF.  The other 6 spots can be comprised of any combination RB, WR and TE.  I rode a deep stable of WRs to a 3^rd place finish and you’ll see that I’ve followed a similar strategy this year.  For whatever reason, I’ve found the WRs to be a better value.  There are also few question marks with the WR position versus the RB position which is another reason I tend to lean in that direction.  I had no knowledge of this “Zero RB Strategy” but the logic is documented in this article if you’re curious. 

You’ll see that I didn’t follow that strategy completely by shelling my largest amount on Lacy.  That was at a point in the auction where I still had a lot of money and I was panicking a little bit at the lack of good players I had compared to everyone else. 

My UPS guy (what can Brown do for me?) shows up on a team for the 3^rd.  Nelson makes another appearance too.  I’m not disappointed in either but I also wish I had made a harder push for one of the top 5 WRs. 

I wanted me some Andre Ellington so I splashed the pot when his name was called.  I think it was a very fair price.  I then rounded out my starting lineup with all WRs.  You’d be hard pressed to argue with any of those prices I think.  No TE?  Well, you don’t need one, so no.  All of my WRs except the last few should outscore most TEs anyway. 

I was getting real nervous that I was going to be stuck with someone like Eli or Dalton as my starting QB because I was under $10 without a QB.  Fortunately, most of the people with money left already had a QB or they made the position an afterthought. If you at the results, you’ll see all sort of crazy bargains at the position.  For the 3^rd league in a row, I’m “stuck” playing the matchup game.  I may do the same with DEF so I was fine getting whatever was left. 

The league site didn’t provide any projections for this team.  With the range of teams (some stars and scrubs, some steady across the board), it’s also harder to judge everyone.  I tried to envision my team against a standard snake draft and it comes out favorably.  That might not mean anything actually.  I had a general plan to model my team after last year’s squad after its success.  Of course, that team also had Peyton Manning.