10 Guys I Hate More Than You

This is part 2 of my 10 & 10 lists (the hates).  For the loves and the parameters used for this list, please see part 1.  To those who have no idea what part 1 was about, it's probably safe to say you can discontinue reading.  I'll get back to the usual self-loathing with my next entry.

 

HATES

QB:  Robert Griffin III (48.3 ADP, 8^th QB taken) – Adrian Peterson certainly set the bar pretty high for guys returning from an ACL injury.  While I don’t doubt RG3 can become the player he was before, I just don’t think it will be this year.  History suggests that.  Much of Griffin’s value last year came from the rushing points he contributed.  You’d be crazy to think he will be inclined to run that much this year, let alone be allowed to by his coaches. Griffin is going before proven vets like Stafford and Romo.  Even Cam Newton took a step back his 2^nd year after defenses adjusted to him, and he was fully healthy.  I’ll take RG3 but not as my #1 QB.

QB:  Joe Flacco (110, 15^th) – Flacco is certainly a competent backup but there is limited upside.  He finished outside the top 20 among QBs last year and there is little reason to think he takes a giant step forward this year.  Don’t be fooled by last year’s great playoff run.  Flacco is pretty much the opposite of Tony Romo, which isn’t a good thing for fantasy.  Baltimore doesn’t boast a great receiving corps and one of his primary targets (Pitta) is lost for the year.  There are solid guys like Carson Palmer and Matt Schaub who have consistently put up better numbers than Flacco who are being taken later.  Since we’re talking a backup QB, I’d also rather take the gamble on risk/reward guys like Josh Freeman or Michael Vick.

RB:  Darren McFadden (37.6, 17^th) – Can I just add Run-DMC to my do not draft list?  I really want no part of this guy.  He will tantalize with you a couple good games and then promptly miss the rest of the season.  This movie has played out enough times for us to know the ending.  Even if McFadden was able to play the majority of the season, I have my doubts about how effective he will be.  Oakland has NOTHING else that should scare opposing defenses.  The “stop McFadden at all costs” approach will be in full effect.  There are plenty of young, upside RBs going after McFadden that I would rather have like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, or Le’Veon Bell.  Heck, if you want to chase after an injury risk who could return top-10 numbers, I’ll submit DeMarco Murray (also going after DMC) for you. [UPDATE: Bell got hurt yesterday after I had started this.  No word on the seriousness of the injury yet.]

RB:  Eddie Lacy (60.1, 23^rd) – I’ve read some rave reviews of Lacy recently, so my hate is starting to subside some.  All I can do is supply the arguments I had planned on using.  When I first considered this article, there were pictures of Lacy floating around that made a beluga whale look small.  There is also the fact that Green Bay running backs have produced exactly ZERO 100 yard games in their last 43.  Maybe they just haven’t had an RB capable of producing those numbers and Lacy is finally the guy.  But maybe the Packers and Coach Mike McCarthy realize that Aaron Rodgers’ arm gives them the best chance to win every game.  Another feather in my cap is that Green Bay opponents this year project to yield the 2^nd least fantasy points per game to RBs.  The aforementioned Lamar Miller and Le’Veon Bell are going after Lacy, and I’d still rather have them.

RB:  Mark Ingram (103.7, 36^th) – I thought Ingram would have been a better pro by this point in his career, but I’m all about ready to stop giving him a free pass.  His YPC was under 4 last year, he didn’t score a ton of touchdowns, and he offers virtually nothing in the passing game.  With Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in tow (both of whom I’d rather have by the way), Ingram just doesn’t get enough work to be a factor.  When you’re talking about 4^th or 5^th RB, I want a lottery ticket.  Give me a true backup with the potential to be great like Ben Tate or Fred Jackson.

WR:  Mike Wallace (48.6, 16^th) – Wallace can put up some monster weeks or he can give you just more than a guy who didn’t play.  I’ve never been a fan of those all or nothing type of receivers.  Wallace has only topped 70 yards receiving 6 times in his last 25 games.  Yikes!  I don’t think anyone would call the move from Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger to Miami and Ryan Tannehill an upgrade.   Miami also doesn’t have a real solid #2 WR to take the pressure off Wallace either.  There are probably at least 10 receivers going after Wallace who I would take first.  I’ve already named a couple of them in my Loves.  Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Antonio Brown, and Pierre Garcon are a few more.

WR:  DeSean Jackson (68.9, 25^th) – A couple of the same arguments I made above with Wallace apply to Jackson – boom or bust output AND lack of a competent 2^nd receiving threat (with Maclin out for the year).  Jackson has also really struggled when Michael Vick has not been his QB.  Vick is healthy right now and the starter, but it remains to be seen how long he stays on the field.  How the offense of new coach Chip Kelly translates to the NFL is a huge question mark.  I don’t feel comfortable with Jackson as my #3 WR. I’d rather have relative unknowns (at least outside of fantasy circles) like Cecil Shorts or a rookie like Tavon Austin.

WR:  Alshon Jeffery (137.5, 48^th) – As a Bears fan, I hope Jeffery becomes a big contributor this season.  My guy simply tells me not to bet on it.  Jay Cutler seemingly only has eyes for Brandon Marshall as evidenced by the whopping 193 targets he received (as compared to Jeffrey’s 48).  It’s hard to blame him.  It’s also well documented that new coach Marc Trestman loves to throw to his running backs, which could also limit Jefrrey’s targets.  He doesn’t even strike as someone who is worth drafting in normal leagues.  There are plenty of other intriguing options I would rather take a chance on late.  Vincent Brown, Aaron Dobson, and Reuben Randle are a few names for you.

TE:  Vernon Davis (58.3, 5^th) – Davis’ reputation and physical abilities precede him, but he never quite seems to live up to the hype.  Excluding the playoffs last year, which is usually a good idea when it comes to fantasy, Davis was virtually non-existent once Colin Kaepernick took over as the 49ers QB.  San Francisco did bring in Anquan Boldin but that only offsets the loss of Michael Crabtree (out for a while), which means defenses can still key in on Davis.  There has been talk of Davis lining up as a receiver.  I’m not sure how to diagnose that news though.  He has the talent to do so, but will learning a new position make things any easier?  I wouldn’t think so.  Davis could be a top 5 TE or he could be outside the top 10.  I’m simply not willing to invest that high of a draft pick on him.  Honestly?  I’d be just as happy with any of the other top-12 tight ends taken after him.

TE:  Kyle Rudolph (77.9, 6^th) – After slam dunk Jimmy Graham and the old, reliable duo of Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, tight end is a huge crapshoot this year.  Rudolph is my poster child for that line of thinking. Much of his value came from the 9 TDs he hauled in last year.  Are you prepared to label him a dynamite red zone threat after 1 year?  Even Megatron himself, the toughest red zone cover, only had 5 TDs.  Receiving touchdowns in football are akin to starting pitcher wins in baseball in my book.  They are pretty tough to predict and can be even harder to repeat when the results are unexpected.  Basically, don’t count on touchdowns.  Take Rudolph’s scores away and he looks VERY average.  If he isn’t scoring, he probably isn’t helping.  Give me someone with more catches and yards like Owen Daniels or Brandon Myers.  I’d also roll with Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley too.

10 Guys I Love More Than You

At the risk of exposing my hand to fellow competitors with 3 fantasy football drafts still to come, I submit to you the 1^st half of my 10 & 10 lists.  These are 10 players that I love more than you and 10 players I hate more than you when it comes to fantasy football drafts.  My inspiration for this blog was inspired by my idol Matthew Berry.  If you’d like to read some analysis that's actually good albeit lengthy, feel free to check out his love/hate article for this year.  Can I get some sort of recognition or compensation for that plug?

Let’s clarify what these lists actually represent.  Does this mean I’m going to morph into Stretch Armstrong to acquire one of my loves or avoid one of my hates like the plague?  Of course not, silly.  Loves and hates are all about value and value is relative.  What price do you have to pay to draft someone?  A love is someone I believe is being drafted too late on average.  Conversely, a hate is someone I deem as being drafted too early.

So, how does one determine average draft position?  I leaned on ESPN’s handy ADP chart as my basis.  I then decided to break it out by position.  You’re getting 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and 2 TEs.  No kickers, Dave?  If you asked that question, you should probably draft one in the first couple rounds… and sign up for one of my leagues (I’ll create an opening).  Okay, but aren’t defenses worth mentioning?  At least you’re making a little sense now.  They’re important but they’re also a crapshoot with widely varying opinions.  I could give you a few that fall within the themes of this article but I figured the core positions were more worthy of your time.

For each position, I attempted to give you a love/hate in certain areas of the draft.  For example, I did QBs in the top 75 and outside the top 75. RBs and WRs listed fall in the 0-50, 51-100, and 100+ tiers.  There simply were not each tight ends drafted early to break it down by tiers, so it’s more of a general value assessment.  One final point of emphasis:  I play in leagues that aware a point or half point per reception.  That does impact the perceived value of the non-QBs I’m giving you.  Alright, let’s get to it!

LOVES

QB:  Matthew Stafford (ADP 57.3, 9^th QB taken) – Stafford threw the ball a ridiculous 727 times last year.  The Lions have Reggie Bush now but he isn’t exactly a bell-cow running back, so expect another heavy dose of drop backs.  Given the sheer number of throws, something just didn’t smell right about Stafford’s 21 TD total following a year of 40. Regardless of your preferred fantasy site, you may have read the stat that Lions receivers were tackled 23 times inside the 5-yard line last year!  I won’t say he returns to 40, but I’d venture he is a lot closer to that number than last year’s total.  After the consensus top 5 at QB, Stafford is my guy.

QB:  Tony Romo (78.9, 12^th) – Remember, you’re trying to win fake football games and not real ones.  I think the fantasy community may be holding that stigma against Romo.  Praise for Romo?  I sincerely hope my buddy Matt (aka Mrs. Tony Romo) isn’t going to read this.  Romo has slipped behind all of the darlings that burst onto the scene last year (Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin, Luck) in the pecking order.  I’m extremely confident that he outperforms at least 2 of them.  Romo has been a top 10 scorer at his position every year he’s been a full-time starter.  He’s got an emerging WR (Dez Bryant) who can still make the Bad Tony look good, and Dallas’ RB (DeMarco Murray) hasn’t been a beacon of health.  Wait on Romo and enjoy the returns.

RB:  Reggie Bush (46.1, 22^nd) – This is where I hope you read the opening about this list being influenced by PPR scoring.  This is also where my brother Dan shakes his head.  I can’t believe you keep going back to this guy!  Detroit can’t throw to Megatron EVERY time, can they?  Even backup RB Joique Bell had PPR value in this offense last year.  Bush won’t be a workhorse but he’s also a more competent runner between the tackles than you think.  He is also in the best position he’s been in during his career.  He doesn’t have the RB competition he did New Orleans and he’s in a much better offense than he was in Miami (duh).  Don’t expect heavy TD totals but the yardage juice should be tasty.  I have him firmly inside my top 15 at the position.

RB:  Lamar Miller (65.4, 26^th) – Miller will be a popular sleeper on many pre-season lists, so I was surprised to find him so low on the ADP list.  We don’t have any kind of body of pro work for this guy but he’s expected to be starter.  If that’s the case, he very well could be a 3-down back considering the reviews I’ve read on his pass catching skills.  Advanced researched has determined that Miami’s opponents this year project to yield the 2^nd most PPG to opposing running backs, based on last year’s stats.  Don’t read too much into that statistic but keep it tucked away for reference.  So Miller only has to beat out Daniel Thomas, right?  Yeah, I’m feeling better about this pick already.

RB:  Danny Woodhead (144.5, 51^st) - Yeah, now we’re getting deep.  Is it fair to label Ryan Mathews a bust at this point?  What about a brittle bust?  Woodhead will never be a typical starting running back given his 5’8’’ stature.  If When Mathews goes down, Woodhead will a guy of weekly interest.  Until then, he is someone I submit as a consideration for the flex position in larger PPR leagues.  50+ catches is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  San Diego doesn’t have a very good run blocking line, so the dump-off pass will be relied upon as a long handoff.   I don’t think the Chargers will be very good this year.  The yards add up in garbage time when defenses are sagging back.  Hey, it all counts the same.

WR:  Danny Amendola (50, 17^th) – File this one under man-crush.  Ever since his 85 catch season in 2010, I’ve been on this guy in almost every league I’ve played in.  I was actually a little disappointed when he went to New England because I was hoping he would continue to languish in anonymity in St. Louis.  Not surprisingly, the price tag has skyrocketed, but I’m still hopeful that I can get some Amendola shares.  I referred to him as Wes Welker lite before and now he takes Welker’s cushy spot in the slot, catching passes from THE man Tom Brady (Go Blue!).  I would be remiss to ignore the checkered injury history trailing Amendola.  He’s only played in 12 games total the past 2 seasons.  Count me among the group with fingers crossed that he plays a full season.  If he does, 100+ receptions is a lock and he’s a borderline top-10 WR.

WR:  Dwayne Bowe (56.3, 19^th) – Stop trippin’ D Bowe!  Bowe has the ability to dominate games, but he’s disappeared far too often for a man of his talent.  Enter Andy Reid and Alex Smith.  You may have heard this before but Reid likes to throw…a lot.  He will make Bowe the prominent piece of that attack.  Smith gives Bowe someone who can deliver the ball to him much more accurately than what he’s had the last few years.  If we look at projected strength of schedule for WRs, the Chiefs come in 5^th.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if D-Bowe finishes as a top 10 WR this year.

WR:  Ryan Broyles (144.6, 55^th) – Apparently I’m really buying into the Lions from a fantasy perspective this year.  This guy was an absolute stud in college; he seemingly caught everything thrown his way.  He has all the makings of a great possession receiver.  Broyles was starting to come on last year before an ACL injury derailed his season.  All indications suggest he’s fully healthy.  Give me the guy playing opposite of Calvin Johnson.  You think Broyles is ever going to see double coverage?  You’re not going to draft Broyles with the intention of starting him.  He’ll be a 5^th WR you can grab late who may play his way into weekly flex consideration.

TE:  Brandon Myers (110.8, 11^th) – Ah, the struggles of toiling in Oakland.  Myers put up a solid fantasy season and you didn’t even notice.  Even in ½ PPR leagues, Myers still ranked solidly in the top 10 at 8^th.  Myers has moved addresses to the East coast and gets a significant upgrade at QB.  That probably doesn’t really improve his value all that much since Eli doesn’t throw to the TE a ton.  I still like Myers because I think his floor is relatively high, especially considering the uncertainty swirling around the position this year.  Expect perhaps a few less catches, similar yardage totals, and probably a few more touchdowns.  He’ll be in the top 10 again. Bank on it.

TE:  Fred Davis (134.8, 15^th) – Davis was a sexy sleeper pick last year coming of a 59 catch, 796 yard season.  Then he injured his Achilles and it was basically a lost season.  Washington also discovered Alfred Morris and has become a run-heavy team.  Davis is back though as a potential post-hype sleeper.  He offers good pass-catching ability and a reliable safety net for RG3 who is making his own return from injury.  Washington doesn’t have a defined 2^nd receiving threat after Pierre Garcon, so Davis can emerge as that guy.  For those who believe in the motivational power of money, Davis is playing for that next big contract.  I’m not drafting him as my starting tight end but he’s worthy of stashing on your bench.   He certainly won’t cost you anything and there’s top-10 TE upside.

nker

You stop in your tracks.

You remember this feeling.

You shudder at where it is going to lead.

You have not fallen for her yet.

You think you might be though.

You at least keep it in the realm of possibility.

You want it to be different this time but you know better.

You go through a state of denial at first.

You seek out anything to disprove your analysis of the situation.

You have no such luck.

You still see repeating patterns.

You finally acknowledge the feeling dotting the horizon in the distance.

You wonder if perhaps it’s just your eyesight that is failing you.

You remember that you wear contacts.

You wince at your horrible attempt to be funny.

You search for a reason for the sudden change of heart.

You cannot pinpoint where it started.

You realize it was probably more gradual, like a snowball rolling down a hill.

You also realize the feeling is growing, like that same snowball.

You hear “Valerie” by Steve Winwood come up on your playlist shuffle.

You like the name Valerie.

You contemplate giving the name to your hypothetical daughter.

You wonder if she would like the name Valerie though.

You realize that she is somewhat ambiguous given the previous sentences.

You clarify that she is her and not the daughter, incidentally.

You regain your senses and refocus.

You question if the feeling is a matter of convenience.

You hope it isn’t because you want it to mean something.

You just want to feel something.

You become scared that it might actually mean something.

You resolve to go about your life in the same way you always have.

You pretend to be unaffected by the new development and it works for a while.

You slowly question your earlier assessment of her, however.

You may have had it all wrong.

You start to see her a little differently.

You start to admire her various qualities.

You become more acutely aware of her presence in your life.

You now see when she’s on Facebook and your heart skips a little beat.

You hold out hope that one of these times she’s going to engage you in chat.

You continue on with your business.

You always seem to glance at the side panel every few minutes.

You can’t help but notice that little green icon next to her name.

You get bored of trolling through other people’s status updates.

You are ready to sign off.

You see she’s still online.

You make up an excuse to stay logged in for a little while longer, just in case.

You stay a slave to your computer because you don’t have a mobile phone alternative.

You get paranoid because you think she notices you’re online A LOT.

You think she considers it kind of pathetic.

You remind yourself that kind of thinking is foolish.

You know she has plenty of better things to do than notice you.

You actually begin to feel a little pathetic.

You decide to hide the chat panel so you don’t feel as guilty.

You don’t worry about whether she is still there for a little while.

You enjoy perusing humorous e-cards.

You unhide the chat panel again.

You see she has logged off.

You feel a small sense of rejection.

You add another tiny paper cut to your growing list of disappointments.

You wonder how many paper cuts a person could survive if the cuts never healed.

You contemplate posting a cryptic status update that somehow links to her.

You would want her to read it.

You struggle to find the exact words.

You usually just end up staring blankly at the screen and post nothing.

You drink some courage fluid once in a while.

You actually do post something.

You get completely random responses.

You play along with the responders.

You no longer want her to read what the post has devolved into.

You feel like an idiot.

You question why she doesn’t want to engage you.

You consider yourself a solid catch.

You think she could do worse.

You believe you two could actually work.

You have no basis to support that belief.

You are just kind of intrigued by the possibility.

You run down your dating resume in your mind.

You acknowledge the lack of work experience.

You believe the qualifications more than make up for it.

You want to run down the entire list of desirable qualities you possess.

You consider her a person of reason.

You think she would respond favorably to your coherent argument.

You feel it’s a little self-serving to build yourself up so much.

You want to do it anyway.

You decide to table that list for future writings.

You compare your life to a proverbial light switch.

You wonder if she’s just waiting for you to turn it on.

You put yourself in her shoes for a moment.

You think she thinks you only have one major character flaw.

You think that she will snatch you up once that flaw is fixed.

You try desperately to convince yourself that’s all it is.       

You try to devise a way to communicate that your flaw is fixable.

You try some more.

You want to tell her all of this.

You wish it were that easy.

You really just need the ability to read minds.

You recall the Mel Gibson movie where he had that power.

You only need it long enough to gain some insight.

You would then relinquish the power.

You think it would be unfair to read her mind unless she could do the same to yours.

You would be OK with that too.

You are a fair guy.

You would probably be a good judge.

You know you would be a good diplomat.

You have been a good diplomat.

You lament that there is no correlation between diplomacy and your current dilemma.

You don’t know how to proceed.

You send up a few prayers for some guidance.

You attempt to lean on predefined rules you’ve established for these matters.

You disagree with what they’re telling you.

You want to say fuck it and cast them aside.

You can’t cast them aside because they still make some sense in your misguided mind.

You wish you never created those damned rules in the first place.

You pause and reflect.

You crack open the book you wrote before on this topic.

You turn to the passage that feels appropriate given the present circumstances.

You remember this chapter of the story.

You liked what you wrote up until now.

You would like to punch yourself in the head for how the book ends though.

You will eventually get a little frustrated.

You will even get a little angry.

You are usually a calm, collected guy.

You will watch the situation unfold exactly as expected.

You will not do anything to alter the course of fate.

You will believe things are unfolding as they were meant to.

You will marvel at your ability to predict the future.

You will find little solace in your supernatural ability.

You will start to find some of the same faults from before with her.

You won’t care if you’re reaching to find them.

You will use them to soothe your jangled nerves anyway.

You can barely keep your eyes open.

You have been staying up way too late way too often.

You decide to finish writing tomorrow.

… … … …

You have parents who are hosting a party later today.

You would like nothing more than to have an excuse to be out of the house.

You have parents who are more active than you are.

You brush aside the bout of surging depression.

You have a post to finish.

You also have chores to do.

You imagine her saving the day with a request to hang out.

You know, of course, that would never happen.

You have gotten better at managing expectations through the years.

You believe managing expectations is important in many facets of life.

You think it has served you well at work anyhow.

You suppose someone besides her will read your writing and be moved to action.

You don’t necessarily mean for the aforementioned party.

You mean at any time.

You will wonder what their motives are.

You hope you are not giving someone else the wrong impression.

You are pacified that the potential list of misled readers is pretty small.

You ask yourself if any interested party would respond to this on blind faith.

You understand how incredibly brave that would be.

You know you probably wouldn’t.

You therefore cannot expect someone else to come forward.

You have your answer.

You would not have a problem with any female responding to this.

You don’t care if they are interested in you in that way or not.

You could use a greater female influence in your life.

You would appreciate if they made their intentions, or lack thereof, quite clear.

You are not very good at deciphering signals.

You also brace yourself for the usual words of encouragement sure to ensue.

You have learned to never turn a deaf ear to advice, even things you’ve heard before.

You never know when something might click.

You always have hopes for when you write.

You hope it sets a chain of events in motion that will work in your favor.

You know it surely won’t.

You have tried this approach before.

You still hope she actually reads your writings.

You think there is a fair chance she does, at least some of them.

You don’t know what to make of that knowledge.

You caution yourself against grasping for the unknown.

You are not even sure what you really want.

You picture her rolling her eyes right about now.

You have some serious second thoughts about posting everything you write.

You fear you’ve let on too much.

You are an honest guy.

You can be too honest for your own good sometimes.

You ready yourself for many more anxious moments to come.

You also ready for yourself for absolutely nothing.

You cringe at the sleepless nights that are surely in your future.

You absolutely hate that you do this to yourself.

You simply remind yourself that this is life.

You are relieved again by these emotions that you feel.

You approve that they add an almost human element to your often robotic mentality.

You want it to all work out, just this once.

You too?