10 Guys I Love More Than You

At the risk of exposing my hand to fellow competitors with 3 fantasy football drafts still to come, I submit to you the 1^st half of my 10 & 10 lists.  These are 10 players that I love more than you and 10 players I hate more than you when it comes to fantasy football drafts.  My inspiration for this blog was inspired by my idol Matthew Berry.  If you’d like to read some analysis that's actually good albeit lengthy, feel free to check out his love/hate article for this year.  Can I get some sort of recognition or compensation for that plug?

Let’s clarify what these lists actually represent.  Does this mean I’m going to morph into Stretch Armstrong to acquire one of my loves or avoid one of my hates like the plague?  Of course not, silly.  Loves and hates are all about value and value is relative.  What price do you have to pay to draft someone?  A love is someone I believe is being drafted too late on average.  Conversely, a hate is someone I deem as being drafted too early.

So, how does one determine average draft position?  I leaned on ESPN’s handy ADP chart as my basis.  I then decided to break it out by position.  You’re getting 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, and 2 TEs.  No kickers, Dave?  If you asked that question, you should probably draft one in the first couple rounds… and sign up for one of my leagues (I’ll create an opening).  Okay, but aren’t defenses worth mentioning?  At least you’re making a little sense now.  They’re important but they’re also a crapshoot with widely varying opinions.  I could give you a few that fall within the themes of this article but I figured the core positions were more worthy of your time.

For each position, I attempted to give you a love/hate in certain areas of the draft.  For example, I did QBs in the top 75 and outside the top 75. RBs and WRs listed fall in the 0-50, 51-100, and 100+ tiers.  There simply were not each tight ends drafted early to break it down by tiers, so it’s more of a general value assessment.  One final point of emphasis:  I play in leagues that aware a point or half point per reception.  That does impact the perceived value of the non-QBs I’m giving you.  Alright, let’s get to it!

LOVES

QB:  Matthew Stafford (ADP 57.3, 9^th QB taken) – Stafford threw the ball a ridiculous 727 times last year.  The Lions have Reggie Bush now but he isn’t exactly a bell-cow running back, so expect another heavy dose of drop backs.  Given the sheer number of throws, something just didn’t smell right about Stafford’s 21 TD total following a year of 40. Regardless of your preferred fantasy site, you may have read the stat that Lions receivers were tackled 23 times inside the 5-yard line last year!  I won’t say he returns to 40, but I’d venture he is a lot closer to that number than last year’s total.  After the consensus top 5 at QB, Stafford is my guy.

QB:  Tony Romo (78.9, 12^th) – Remember, you’re trying to win fake football games and not real ones.  I think the fantasy community may be holding that stigma against Romo.  Praise for Romo?  I sincerely hope my buddy Matt (aka Mrs. Tony Romo) isn’t going to read this.  Romo has slipped behind all of the darlings that burst onto the scene last year (Kaepernick, Wilson, Griffin, Luck) in the pecking order.  I’m extremely confident that he outperforms at least 2 of them.  Romo has been a top 10 scorer at his position every year he’s been a full-time starter.  He’s got an emerging WR (Dez Bryant) who can still make the Bad Tony look good, and Dallas’ RB (DeMarco Murray) hasn’t been a beacon of health.  Wait on Romo and enjoy the returns.

RB:  Reggie Bush (46.1, 22^nd) – This is where I hope you read the opening about this list being influenced by PPR scoring.  This is also where my brother Dan shakes his head.  I can’t believe you keep going back to this guy!  Detroit can’t throw to Megatron EVERY time, can they?  Even backup RB Joique Bell had PPR value in this offense last year.  Bush won’t be a workhorse but he’s also a more competent runner between the tackles than you think.  He is also in the best position he’s been in during his career.  He doesn’t have the RB competition he did New Orleans and he’s in a much better offense than he was in Miami (duh).  Don’t expect heavy TD totals but the yardage juice should be tasty.  I have him firmly inside my top 15 at the position.

RB:  Lamar Miller (65.4, 26^th) – Miller will be a popular sleeper on many pre-season lists, so I was surprised to find him so low on the ADP list.  We don’t have any kind of body of pro work for this guy but he’s expected to be starter.  If that’s the case, he very well could be a 3-down back considering the reviews I’ve read on his pass catching skills.  Advanced researched has determined that Miami’s opponents this year project to yield the 2^nd most PPG to opposing running backs, based on last year’s stats.  Don’t read too much into that statistic but keep it tucked away for reference.  So Miller only has to beat out Daniel Thomas, right?  Yeah, I’m feeling better about this pick already.

RB:  Danny Woodhead (144.5, 51^st) - Yeah, now we’re getting deep.  Is it fair to label Ryan Mathews a bust at this point?  What about a brittle bust?  Woodhead will never be a typical starting running back given his 5’8’’ stature.  If When Mathews goes down, Woodhead will a guy of weekly interest.  Until then, he is someone I submit as a consideration for the flex position in larger PPR leagues.  50+ catches is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  San Diego doesn’t have a very good run blocking line, so the dump-off pass will be relied upon as a long handoff.   I don’t think the Chargers will be very good this year.  The yards add up in garbage time when defenses are sagging back.  Hey, it all counts the same.

WR:  Danny Amendola (50, 17^th) – File this one under man-crush.  Ever since his 85 catch season in 2010, I’ve been on this guy in almost every league I’ve played in.  I was actually a little disappointed when he went to New England because I was hoping he would continue to languish in anonymity in St. Louis.  Not surprisingly, the price tag has skyrocketed, but I’m still hopeful that I can get some Amendola shares.  I referred to him as Wes Welker lite before and now he takes Welker’s cushy spot in the slot, catching passes from THE man Tom Brady (Go Blue!).  I would be remiss to ignore the checkered injury history trailing Amendola.  He’s only played in 12 games total the past 2 seasons.  Count me among the group with fingers crossed that he plays a full season.  If he does, 100+ receptions is a lock and he’s a borderline top-10 WR.

WR:  Dwayne Bowe (56.3, 19^th) – Stop trippin’ D Bowe!  Bowe has the ability to dominate games, but he’s disappeared far too often for a man of his talent.  Enter Andy Reid and Alex Smith.  You may have heard this before but Reid likes to throw…a lot.  He will make Bowe the prominent piece of that attack.  Smith gives Bowe someone who can deliver the ball to him much more accurately than what he’s had the last few years.  If we look at projected strength of schedule for WRs, the Chiefs come in 5^th.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if D-Bowe finishes as a top 10 WR this year.

WR:  Ryan Broyles (144.6, 55^th) – Apparently I’m really buying into the Lions from a fantasy perspective this year.  This guy was an absolute stud in college; he seemingly caught everything thrown his way.  He has all the makings of a great possession receiver.  Broyles was starting to come on last year before an ACL injury derailed his season.  All indications suggest he’s fully healthy.  Give me the guy playing opposite of Calvin Johnson.  You think Broyles is ever going to see double coverage?  You’re not going to draft Broyles with the intention of starting him.  He’ll be a 5^th WR you can grab late who may play his way into weekly flex consideration.

TE:  Brandon Myers (110.8, 11^th) – Ah, the struggles of toiling in Oakland.  Myers put up a solid fantasy season and you didn’t even notice.  Even in ½ PPR leagues, Myers still ranked solidly in the top 10 at 8^th.  Myers has moved addresses to the East coast and gets a significant upgrade at QB.  That probably doesn’t really improve his value all that much since Eli doesn’t throw to the TE a ton.  I still like Myers because I think his floor is relatively high, especially considering the uncertainty swirling around the position this year.  Expect perhaps a few less catches, similar yardage totals, and probably a few more touchdowns.  He’ll be in the top 10 again. Bank on it.

TE:  Fred Davis (134.8, 15^th) – Davis was a sexy sleeper pick last year coming of a 59 catch, 796 yard season.  Then he injured his Achilles and it was basically a lost season.  Washington also discovered Alfred Morris and has become a run-heavy team.  Davis is back though as a potential post-hype sleeper.  He offers good pass-catching ability and a reliable safety net for RG3 who is making his own return from injury.  Washington doesn’t have a defined 2^nd receiving threat after Pierre Garcon, so Davis can emerge as that guy.  For those who believe in the motivational power of money, Davis is playing for that next big contract.  I’m not drafting him as my starting tight end but he’s worthy of stashing on your bench.   He certainly won’t cost you anything and there’s top-10 TE upside.