Tuesday, August 20, 2013

10 Guys I Hate More Than You

This is part 2 of my 10 & 10 lists (the hates).  For the loves and the parameters used for this list, please see part 1.  To those who have no idea what part 1 was about, it's probably safe to say you can discontinue reading.  I'll get back to the usual self-loathing with my next entry.
 
HATES

QB:  Robert Griffin III (48.3 ADP, 8th QB taken) – Adrian Peterson certainly set the bar pretty high for guys returning from an ACL injury.  While I don’t doubt RG3 can become the player he was before, I just don’t think it will be this year.  History suggests that.  Much of Griffin’s value last year came from the rushing points he contributed.  You’d be crazy to think he will be inclined to run that much this year, let alone be allowed to by his coaches. Griffin is going before proven vets like Stafford and Romo.  Even Cam Newton took a step back his 2nd year after defenses adjusted to him, and he was fully healthy.  I’ll take RG3 but not as my #1 QB.

QB:  Joe Flacco (110, 15th) – Flacco is certainly a competent backup but there is limited upside.  He finished outside the top 20 among QBs last year and there is little reason to think he takes a giant step forward this year.  Don’t be fooled by last year’s great playoff run.  Flacco is pretty much the opposite of Tony Romo, which isn’t a good thing for fantasy.  Baltimore doesn’t boast a great receiving corps and one of his primary targets (Pitta) is lost for the year.  There are solid guys like Carson Palmer and Matt Schaub who have consistently put up better numbers than Flacco who are being taken later.  Since we’re talking a backup QB, I’d also rather take the gamble on risk/reward guys like Josh Freeman or Michael Vick.

RB:  Darren McFadden (37.6, 17th) – Can I just add Run-DMC to my do not draft list?  I really want no part of this guy.  He will tantalize with you a couple good games and then promptly miss the rest of the season.  This movie has played out enough times for us to know the ending.  Even if McFadden was able to play the majority of the season, I have my doubts about how effective he will be.  Oakland has NOTHING else that should scare opposing defenses.  The “stop McFadden at all costs” approach will be in full effect.  There are plenty of young, upside RBs going after McFadden that I would rather have like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, or Le’Veon Bell.  Heck, if you want to chase after an injury risk who could return top-10 numbers, I’ll submit DeMarco Murray (also going after DMC) for you. [UPDATE: Bell got hurt yesterday after I had started this.  No word on the seriousness of the injury yet.]

RB:  Eddie Lacy (60.1, 23rd) – I’ve read some rave reviews of Lacy recently, so my hate is starting to subside some.  All I can do is supply the arguments I had planned on using.  When I first considered this article, there were pictures of Lacy floating around that made a beluga whale look small.  There is also the fact that Green Bay running backs have produced exactly ZERO 100 yard games in their last 43.  Maybe they just haven’t had an RB capable of producing those numbers and Lacy is finally the guy.  But maybe the Packers and Coach Mike McCarthy realize that Aaron Rodgers’ arm gives them the best chance to win every game.  Another feather in my cap is that Green Bay opponents this year project to yield the 2nd least fantasy points per game to RBs.  The aforementioned Lamar Miller and Le’Veon Bell are going after Lacy, and I’d still rather have them.

RB:  Mark Ingram (103.7, 36th) – I thought Ingram would have been a better pro by this point in his career, but I’m all about ready to stop giving him a free pass.  His YPC was under 4 last year, he didn’t score a ton of touchdowns, and he offers virtually nothing in the passing game.  With Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in tow (both of whom I’d rather have by the way), Ingram just doesn’t get enough work to be a factor.  When you’re talking about 4th or 5th RB, I want a lottery ticket.  Give me a true backup with the potential to be great like Ben Tate or Fred Jackson.

WR:  Mike Wallace (48.6, 16th) – Wallace can put up some monster weeks or he can give you just more than a guy who didn’t play.  I’ve never been a fan of those all or nothing type of receivers.  Wallace has only topped 70 yards receiving 6 times in his last 25 games.  Yikes!  I don’t think anyone would call the move from Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger to Miami and Ryan Tannehill an upgrade.   Miami also doesn’t have a real solid #2 WR to take the pressure off Wallace either.  There are probably at least 10 receivers going after Wallace who I would take first.  I’ve already named a couple of them in my Loves.  Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Antonio Brown, and Pierre Garcon are a few more.

WR:  DeSean Jackson (68.9, 25th) – A couple of the same arguments I made above with Wallace apply to Jackson – boom or bust output AND lack of a competent 2nd receiving threat (with Maclin out for the year).  Jackson has also really struggled when Michael Vick has not been his QB.  Vick is healthy right now and the starter, but it remains to be seen how long he stays on the field.  How the offense of new coach Chip Kelly translates to the NFL is a huge question mark.  I don’t feel comfortable with Jackson as my #3 WR. I’d rather have relative unknowns (at least outside of fantasy circles) like Cecil Shorts or a rookie like Tavon Austin.

WR:  Alshon Jeffery (137.5, 48th) – As a Bears fan, I hope Jeffery becomes a big contributor this season.  My guy simply tells me not to bet on it.  Jay Cutler seemingly only has eyes for Brandon Marshall as evidenced by the whopping 193 targets he received (as compared to Jeffrey’s 48).  It’s hard to blame him.  It’s also well documented that new coach Marc Trestman loves to throw to his running backs, which could also limit Jefrrey’s targets.  He doesn’t even strike as someone who is worth drafting in normal leagues.  There are plenty of other intriguing options I would rather take a chance on late.  Vincent Brown, Aaron Dobson, and Reuben Randle are a few names for you.

TE:  Vernon Davis (58.3, 5th) – Davis’ reputation and physical abilities precede him, but he never quite seems to live up to the hype.  Excluding the playoffs last year, which is usually a good idea when it comes to fantasy, Davis was virtually non-existent once Colin Kaepernick took over as the 49ers QB.  San Francisco did bring in Anquan Boldin but that only offsets the loss of Michael Crabtree (out for a while), which means defenses can still key in on Davis.  There has been talk of Davis lining up as a receiver.  I’m not sure how to diagnose that news though.  He has the talent to do so, but will learning a new position make things any easier?  I wouldn’t think so.  Davis could be a top 5 TE or he could be outside the top 10.  I’m simply not willing to invest that high of a draft pick on him.  Honestly?  I’d be just as happy with any of the other top-12 tight ends taken after him.

TE:  Kyle Rudolph (77.9, 6th) – After slam dunk Jimmy Graham and the old, reliable duo of Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, tight end is a huge crapshoot this year.  Rudolph is my poster child for that line of thinking. Much of his value came from the 9 TDs he hauled in last year.  Are you prepared to label him a dynamite red zone threat after 1 year?  Even Megatron himself, the toughest red zone cover, only had 5 TDs.  Receiving touchdowns in football are akin to starting pitcher wins in baseball in my book.  They are pretty tough to predict and can be even harder to repeat when the results are unexpected.  Basically, don’t count on touchdowns.  Take Rudolph’s scores away and he looks VERY average.  If he isn’t scoring, he probably isn’t helping.  Give me someone with more catches and yards like Owen Daniels or Brandon Myers.  I’d also roll with Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley too.

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