HATES
QB: Robert Griffin
III (48.3 ADP, 8th QB taken) – Adrian Peterson certainly set the bar
pretty high for guys returning from an ACL injury. While I don’t doubt RG3 can become the player
he was before, I just don’t think it will be this year. History suggests that. Much of Griffin’s value last year came from
the rushing points he contributed. You’d
be crazy to think he will be inclined to run that much this year, let alone be
allowed to by his coaches. Griffin is going before proven vets like Stafford
and Romo. Even Cam Newton took a step
back his 2nd year after defenses adjusted to him, and he was fully
healthy. I’ll take RG3 but not as my #1
QB.
QB: Joe Flacco (110,
15th) – Flacco is certainly a competent backup but there is limited
upside. He finished outside the top 20
among QBs last year and there is little reason to think he takes a giant step
forward this year. Don’t be fooled by
last year’s great playoff run. Flacco is
pretty much the opposite of Tony Romo, which isn’t a good thing for
fantasy. Baltimore doesn’t boast a great
receiving corps and one of his primary targets (Pitta) is lost for the
year. There are solid guys like Carson
Palmer and Matt Schaub who have consistently put up better numbers than Flacco
who are being taken later. Since we’re
talking a backup QB, I’d also rather take the gamble on risk/reward guys like
Josh Freeman or Michael Vick.
RB: Darren McFadden
(37.6, 17th) – Can I just add Run-DMC to my do not draft list? I really want no part of this guy. He will tantalize with you a couple good
games and then promptly miss the rest of the season. This movie has played out enough times for us
to know the ending. Even if McFadden was
able to play the majority of the season, I have my doubts about how effective
he will be. Oakland has NOTHING else
that should scare opposing defenses. The
“stop McFadden at all costs” approach will be in full effect. There are plenty of young, upside RBs going
after McFadden that I would rather have like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, or Le’Veon
Bell. Heck, if you want to chase after
an injury risk who could return top-10 numbers, I’ll submit DeMarco Murray
(also going after DMC) for you. [UPDATE:
Bell got hurt yesterday after I had started this. No word on the seriousness of the injury
yet.]
RB: Eddie Lacy (60.1,
23rd) – I’ve read some rave reviews of Lacy recently, so my hate is
starting to subside some. All I can do
is supply the arguments I had planned on using.
When I first considered this article, there were pictures of Lacy floating
around that made a beluga whale look small.
There is also the fact that Green Bay running backs have produced exactly
ZERO 100 yard games in their last 43.
Maybe they just haven’t had an RB capable of producing those numbers and
Lacy is finally the guy. But maybe the
Packers and Coach Mike McCarthy realize that Aaron Rodgers’ arm gives them the
best chance to win every game. Another
feather in my cap is that Green Bay opponents this year project to yield the 2nd
least fantasy points per game to RBs.
The aforementioned Lamar Miller and Le’Veon Bell are going after Lacy,
and I’d still rather have them.
RB: Mark Ingram
(103.7, 36th) – I thought Ingram would have been a better pro by
this point in his career, but I’m all about ready to stop giving him a free
pass. His YPC was under 4 last year, he
didn’t score a ton of touchdowns, and he offers virtually nothing in the
passing game. With Darren Sproles and
Pierre Thomas in tow (both of whom I’d rather have by the way), Ingram just
doesn’t get enough work to be a factor.
When you’re talking about 4th or 5th RB, I want a
lottery ticket. Give me a true backup
with the potential to be great like Ben Tate or Fred Jackson.
WR: Mike Wallace
(48.6, 16th) – Wallace can put up some monster weeks or he can give
you just more than a guy who didn’t play.
I’ve never been a fan of those all or nothing type of receivers. Wallace has only topped 70 yards receiving 6 times
in his last 25 games. Yikes! I don’t think anyone would call the move from
Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger to Miami and Ryan Tannehill an upgrade. Miami also doesn’t have a real solid #2 WR
to take the pressure off Wallace either.
There are probably at least 10 receivers going after Wallace who I would
take first. I’ve already named a couple
of them in my Loves. Jordy Nelson, James
Jones, Antonio Brown, and Pierre Garcon are a few more.
WR: DeSean Jackson
(68.9, 25th) – A couple of the same arguments I made above with Wallace
apply to Jackson – boom or bust output AND lack of a competent 2nd
receiving threat (with Maclin out for the year). Jackson has also really struggled when
Michael Vick has not been his QB. Vick
is healthy right now and the starter, but it remains to be seen how long he
stays on the field. How the offense of
new coach Chip Kelly translates to the NFL is a huge question mark. I don’t feel comfortable with Jackson as my
#3 WR. I’d rather have relative unknowns (at least outside of fantasy circles)
like Cecil Shorts or a rookie like Tavon Austin.
WR: Alshon Jeffery
(137.5, 48th) – As a Bears fan, I hope Jeffery becomes a big
contributor this season. My guy simply
tells me not to bet on it. Jay Cutler
seemingly only has eyes for Brandon Marshall as evidenced by the whopping 193
targets he received (as compared to Jeffrey’s 48). It’s hard to blame him. It’s also well documented that new coach Marc
Trestman loves to throw to his running backs, which could also limit Jefrrey’s
targets. He doesn’t even strike as
someone who is worth drafting in normal leagues. There are plenty of other intriguing options
I would rather take a chance on late.
Vincent Brown, Aaron Dobson, and Reuben Randle are a few names for you.
TE: Vernon Davis
(58.3, 5th) – Davis’ reputation and physical abilities precede him,
but he never quite seems to live up to the hype. Excluding the playoffs last year, which is
usually a good idea when it comes to fantasy, Davis was virtually non-existent
once Colin Kaepernick took over as the 49ers QB. San Francisco did bring in Anquan Boldin but
that only offsets the loss of Michael Crabtree (out for a while), which means
defenses can still key in on Davis.
There has been talk of Davis lining up as a receiver. I’m not sure how to diagnose that news though. He has the talent to do so, but will learning
a new position make things any easier? I
wouldn’t think so. Davis could be a top
5 TE or he could be outside the top 10.
I’m simply not willing to invest that high of a draft pick on him. Honestly?
I’d be just as happy with any of the other top-12 tight ends taken after
him.
TE: Kyle Rudolph
(77.9, 6th) – After slam dunk Jimmy Graham and the old, reliable duo
of Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, tight end is a huge crapshoot this
year. Rudolph is my poster child for
that line of thinking. Much of his value came from the 9 TDs he hauled in last
year. Are you prepared to label him a
dynamite red zone threat after 1 year?
Even Megatron himself, the toughest red zone cover, only had 5 TDs. Receiving touchdowns in football are akin to
starting pitcher wins in baseball in my book.
They are pretty tough to predict and can be even harder to repeat when
the results are unexpected. Basically,
don’t count on touchdowns. Take Rudolph’s
scores away and he looks VERY average.
If he isn’t scoring, he probably isn’t helping. Give me someone with more catches and yards
like Owen Daniels or Brandon Myers. I’d
also roll with Greg Olsen or Jermichael Finley too.
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