Monday, April 1, 2013

2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis

Heads up:  If you don't play fantasy baseball or don't like reading about other people's drafts, this entry will not interest you at all.  However, this is a blog about me and fantasy sports are a big part of who I am.  Think Dungeons & Dragons but for jocks.  It's articles like this that afford me the rare opportunity to combine two loves (writing and sports) together.

Still with me?  This entry is a breakdown of a team I recently drafted for the upcoming baseball season.  I should inform you that this a roto league.  The hitting categories are: Runs, Hits, HRs, RBIs, SBs, BBs, Ks and AVG.  The pitching categories are: Wins, Losses, ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts, Ks and Net Saves (Saves - Blown Saves).  Feel free to use the link below for the entire draft results and some frame of reference.  The top portion of the document has the round-by-round results.  Underneath it are the teams with the players inserted in their starting positions.  Welcome back, baseball!

Draft Board

Rd 1 (Votto): After the big 3, I felt like it was pretty wide open.  Arguments could be made for or against every other potential first round pick.  I liked Cano and Kemp the next best but of course they got taken.  I felt like it was a little early for an ace.  The choice came down between Votto and Pujols.  I’ve never owned either but Votto’s numbers last year despite missing a 1/3 of the season were off the hook.

Rd 2 (Bautista):  This choice was either between Joey Bats or Kershaw.  As it turns out, I made the right choice in gambling I could still get an ace.  In a post-steroid era where power seems to be dwindling, the likely AL HR champ was too much to pass up.  Oh, and you might have noticed that Toronto made some off-season improvements.

Rd 3 (Pedroia): I made this pick with a lot of trepidation.  Pedroia’s ADP suggests it was a legitimate pick but middle infielders have a propensity of getting hurt.  I’ve had enough Kinsler shares in my other leagues the past couple years so Pedroia was the preferred choice for me at the thin 2B position.  I really should’ve went for a pitcher in the absence of any slam dunk hitter, but I got lucky.

Rd 4 (Hamels):  As I’ve alluded to, this was a no doubter for me.  Hamels was the last true ace in my eyes and I was doing the happy dance when he came back around to me.  Gun to my head, I’d have picked Price if both were there, but I can definitely make the case for this guy as the 4th best SP after the Verlander/Kershaw/Strasburg holy triumvirate.

Rd 5 (Craig):  I’m probably a little higher on Craig than most but I was still sweating it out hoping to get him in this round.  I wasn’t targeting anybody else.  Sure, he’s a bit of an injury concern and I don’t foresee a full season.  Still, 140 games will be worth it because all this guy has ever done is rake whenever he got the chance to play.  The Cardinals finally unleashed him last year.  That triple-position eligibility is handy too.

Rd 6 (Zobrist):  This felt like a little bit of a reach at the time and I may regret not taking a better #2 starter like Greinke or Sabathia.  Again, I was a sucker for the multi-position eligibility, especially considering one of those spots was SS.  An SS with a 15/15 floor and respectable numbers across the board will play nicely no matter how you slice it.

Rd 7 (V. Martinez):  This was a case where participating in a draft the week before tipped me off to something valuable.  Yes, V-Mart has still retained C eligibility in Yahoo (he didn’t in my CBS league).  I missed the boat on my other league but I wasn’t about to here.  He’s essentially Joe Mauer but a couple rounds cheaper. Sacrifice a little average and gain a little pop.  As a fantasy owner, you have to appreciate when your catcher isn’t really a catcher.  That means he’s probably playing more games and isn’t going to get wore down by the demands of the most taxing position.  The brilliance of this pick may be somewhat mitigated by the number of quality catching options that could be had late but after reviewing the draft, I didn’t see anyone picked after this pick that I would have rather had.

Rd 8 (Kimbrel):  Wait, you’re telling me I was the first to take a closer?  That sort of thing is reserved for Wick (well, that and taking a kicker).  Never pay for saves.  We’ve all heard that, right?  Actually, I think this pick is fairly defensible.  His ADP says he could have gone a couple rounds earlier.  He’s the hands down best player at his position.  You mostly just care about saves with your closer, but the K’s and ratios are dreamy with this guy.  At this point, I still needed a 3B and CF but I didn’t see any options that jumped out at me.  The same can be said for the SPs, and I did need a #2.  I strongly considered taking Peavy here but as you’ll see, it’s a good thing I waited.

Rd 9 (Peavy): OK, I couldn’t wait any longer on securing a 2nd starter.  Believe it or not, this was not a homer pick.  Peavy simply was the highest guy on my board.  There’s obvious injury concern here and I’d still like to acquire a better #2.

Rd 10 (Gallardo):  Clearly, I was still feeling the reservations of my Peavy pick so I wanted to back it up with another quality arm.  I’ve never owned Gallardo because I’ve never liked him.  I still don’t really; his WHIP is just too high for my liking.  That being said, he’s a 200 K guy who always flirts with 20 wins.  I wanted Freeman but Ken snatched him and I don’t have any regrets with this pick.

Rd 11 (H Ramirez):  I felt like we’d finally gotten to the point where we were past picking guys that couldn’t be dropped. Sure, there were still good options out there.  I’ll even concede that this was too early for a guy missing 2 months.  If he wasn’t an SS, Hanley would not have even been a consideration.  I wonder how much longer he would have lasted.  If he comes back and does what he’s capable of, it will be a nice boost in the 2nd half. Plus I already had Zobrist so it’s not like I will be scraping by with Alexei Ramirez.

Rd 12 (Willingham):  Based on last year’s numbers alone, this guy should have been picked much higher.  Would you believe he had 35 bombs and 110 ribbies?  Yeah, that’s real.  The Hammer dropped because people don’t see a repeat.  I don’t see one either but I don’t think it will be much of a drop-off.  The power has always been there and I think it makes for a nice trading chip.

Rd 13 (Grilli):  I was disappointed to see both Gomez (CF) and Lawrie (3B) go before I got to make this pick because I still needed both spots.  Now I’m not sure if I set off a bit of a closer run (eh, I’ll take some credit) but 3 of them did go right after this pick.  Grilli is unproven but Hanrahan proved the Pirates can provide ample opportunities. He has the K numbers you like to see in a closer.  I don’t love this pick but it also didn’t cause me to miss out on anyone.

Rd 14 (Betancourt): Seeing guys like Montero and Perez go after this pick put a damper on my V-Mart joy.  I had briefly considered each as a backup C but felt like I didn’t need one with V-Mart expected to play so much.  I’ve had some misfortune with closers the last few seasons but I still try to hoard them as much as possible.  I just usually wait a little later.  For some reason, I decided to go with a guy I felt better about. Betancourt has earned his way into my circle of trust after last year. 

Rd 15 (Crisp):  This was a pretty boring pick.  Crisp is usually a guy that doesn’t get drafted but finds his way onto a team at some point during the year.  I really liked my offense but I still needed a CF and I needed a lot of speed.  Crisp fit both needs.  In the back of my mind, I remember the revolving door I had in LF last year and I feel like CF could be that problem point for me this year.  I should have went for a 3B with upside right here but again I lucked out.

Rd 16 (I. Davis):  I chose to ignore 3B again because Davis stood out to me as a great value pick.  The .227 average is downright ugly but the 32 HRs are not something easily found at this stage in the game.  Most projections I’ve seen have Ike’s average climbing above .250.  Averages just aren’t what they used to be and if those projections hold, he’s more than worthy of a utility spot. My power is elite so this was just a case of adding to a strength and positioning myself for a trade.

Rd 17 (Middlebrooks):  By this time, I was just praying that either Middlebrooks or Moustakas would be left when it got to me.  Both are young 3Bs with a great amount of upside.  I actually like Moustakas more but I wanted both and felt like Middlebrooks was more likely to be selected.  His BB/K ratio is raises a few flags but the power numbers and average in limited time last year have me hopeful.

Rd 18 (Moustakas): Giggity.  My other 3B target did in fact go undrafted.  Moose has been absolutely killing the ball this spring.  I know that means little but it’s better than sucking.  He projects as a 30 HR guy eventually (although maybe not this year) and his minor league track record suggests the average can rise. Between him and Middlebrooks, I’m just hoping I hit on one of them and have my 3B.

Rd 19 (Fiers):  With just 3 starters and all my hitting spots filled, it was time to refocus on pitchers.  Fortunately, I pride myself on being able to go real deep in pitching.  It always amazes me the kind of pitchers you see get taken at the end of drafts.  That’s why I felt confident in my ability to get good values here and beyond.  Actually, I was disappointed to see some of my targets for a #4 (Estrada, Lynn, Harvey) jump off the board but Fiers was another guy on my list.  I love the K potential and upside with a good offense supporting him.  I regretted this pick after I made it though because Fiers may not have even been drafted.  Update:  I’ve since dropped him when Milwaukee announced he would be working out of the bullpen.  Then they decided to change their minds a few hours later.  Jerks!  Nonetheless, I wanted some shares of Julio Teheran to start the year (I didn’t have him in any other leagues so I was antsy). It’s almost a wash between those 2 in my eyes.

Rd 20 (Reddick):  Another value pick who can play 2 OF positions.  Let’s call him the Ike Davis of the outfield.  A 30+ HR guy with a sketchy average.  There’s always plenty of speed you can grab off the waiver wire (see my recent Juan Pierre add) but not so much with power. Reddick makes a nice backup and a pick I was glad to make.

Rd 21 (Cobb):  There was no doubt I was taking an SP here, so it was just a matter of the best one left.  To me, this was Cobb.  He had a strong finish to last year and has posted some very tidy numbers this spring.  He’s made some sleeper lists.  He could be a nice spot starter or he could be off my team in a few weeks.  I guess it’s that way with any pitchers you take this late.  The only trait they should have is upside and Cobb has it.

Rd 22 (Griffin):  Most of what I said about Cobb above can be repeated here so I’ll save some words.

Rd 23 (Veras):  The penultimate round and there’s a still closer to be had?  Sign me up.  Sure, this guy could do more harm than good but he also might save 25 games with numbers that won’t kill me.  There’s only a finite number of those closing jobs available so this was an easy pick.

Rd 24 (Ortiz):  Big Papi is closer to 40 than 30 and he’s probably going to miss the first month of the season.  And yet there were at least a couple groans from people who didn’t realize he was still available when I called his name.  (Not gonna lie, that felt good.)  In an injury-shortened 2012, he put up great (not just good) numbers.  I can’t expect a complete renaissance but he’s a last round pick after all.  I don’t expect much of anything.  He’s got the upside of a utility player and that’s all I can ask.

Overall thoughts:  I was pretty pleased with how the draft turned out.  There were only a couple times where I got “burned” by having a player snaked away from me.  It’s virtually impossible to get through a whole draft where that’s the case; you just hope to limit the number.  I took some gambles hoping that players would fall to me (specifically with an ace SP and those upstart 3Bs) and they did.  I was able to acquire many of the players I was targeting in the early part of the draft.  There were a couple times I wish I had just grabbed the best player available instead of trying to fill out the whole lineup.  However, I think I corrected that line of thinking in the middle part of the draft as evidenced by my waiting on a CF and 3B.  I think my offense is going to be dynamite.  I should even fare well in the “hidden” categories like walks and strikeouts.  Speed will be an issue but there are a lot of one-trick ponies in FA who can fill that void.  My biggest concern is the lack of a more stable #2 SP, which would allow everyone else to slide down a spot in the rotation.  My closing should (fingers crossed) be a position of relative strength but the volatility of the position has me sleeping with one eye open. It was a good piece of a work in my opinion.  I’ll give myself an A minus.

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